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 Russian oil politics

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svybski



Number of posts : 59
Registration date : 2007-07-31

PostSubject: Russian oil politics   Fri Aug 03, 2007 6:08 am

check out this:

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/58988.pdf

there is threat that if russia decides to export oil only to china, it would create a world-wide recession. Most losers would be eu & usa.. Sad

I hope they dont make any oil pipelines from russia to china.

russia used oil as weapon previously with baltics & ukraine, so it does not look good
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svybski



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PostSubject: Oil crisis? Cultural crisis?   Fri Aug 03, 2007 6:25 am

Russian energy use is 90%- based on hydrocarbons

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Background.html

in practice this might be close to 95%, because of transportation of energy and mining (uranium, plutonium etc) is based on oil.

it seem to be possible that if russian oil or natural gas production goes decline, they simpy start exporting less (this is so called export land model). It might also trigger world-wide oil crisis, since russia's importance is same or even more important than OPEC's nowadays.

Are we facing oil or natural gas crisis because of russian politics or increased domestic use?

I read some old book, which emphasized the fact that oil fields within minority areas usually damages the local culture. This has been happened in russia, but also in USA (oilfields in indians' reservates).
the problem is normally that you have to get more employees from other regions for oil extraction. Maybe we are facing even worse "cultural crisis".

Sometimes oil is curse not blessing..
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Rzeczpospolita

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PostSubject: Re: Russian oil politics   Fri Aug 03, 2007 10:38 pm

telkola wrote:
check out this:

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/58988.pdf

there is threat that if russia decides to export oil only to china, it would create a world-wide recession. Most losers would be eu & usa.. Sad

US buys its oil mostly from Arabs and they have untouched resources in Alaska. About the EU, those who rejected coal and signed Kyoto protocols did write its own destiny.

Quote :
I hope they dont make any oil pipelines from russia to china.

I hope otherwise, finally Europe would be forced to switch on something that would fulfill their needs and would be easily available. This is coal and nuclear energy.

Quote :

russia used oil as weapon previously with baltics & ukraine, so it does not look good
This true that Kremlin use energy as a weapon but on other hand they have right to demand from Ukraine to pay as much as other countries. The same Belarus, Luka regime targeted by Russia is a funny outcome.
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svybski



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PostSubject: world supply was the point   Sat Aug 04, 2007 9:38 am

Rzeczpospolita wrote:

US buys its oil mostly from Arabs and they have untouched resources in Alaska. About the EU, those who rejected coal and signed Kyoto protocols did write its own destiny.

hmm... I try to explain this..

if russia just dont export oil as much it could be,
* there would be world-wide lack of oil
* but: russia loses oil revenues

China possibly could buy more oil from russia, because there are from time to time lack of oil (oil crisis). This could mean increases in consumption and supplies would be even more scarce then.

Usa do not import most of the oil from the arabs, which is really common belief. and it does not even matter (so much) where it imports the oil!!! If there are world wide supply problems....

Resources of alaska are not so big, check how much russia exports vs. possible production figures of alaska. And resources do NOT mean reserves: you can produces reserves, but not necessarily resources.
in plain english: you cannot extract all oil from the ground

you are right about Kyoto & other stuff.

I am really sorry: I am such a lazy guy that I dont want to explain in more detail, if you want more explanations, check theoildrum.com :/

I hope this clarified a bit why I have this opinion Smile
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Rzeczpospolita

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PostSubject: Re: Russian oil politics   Sat Aug 04, 2007 11:37 am

telkola wrote:

if russia just dont export oil as much it could be,
* there would be world-wide lack of oil

Rather lack of oil for Europe. Prices are already very high and any drastic rise is hardly possible. OPEC and other mayor oil exporters know that they can raise price to a certain level that if they would cross other technologies would be more profitable. For example, renewable energy, gasification of coal.

Quote :
* but: russia loses oil revenues

Their budget is based on energy export so this would be a catastrophe for Russia.
Quote :


Usa do not import most of the oil from the arabs, which is really common belief. and it does not even matter (so much) where it imports the oil!!! If there are world wide supply problems....

I have checked and five mayor suppliers are Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria, together 87% of US oil imports. Russia is even below Iraq which probably will export more in the future.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html
They import oil heavily with help of tankers.


Last edited by on Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Hypno
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Localisation : Kuressaare, Estonia
Registration date : 2007-05-15

PostSubject: Re: Russian oil politics   Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:54 pm

I hope someone invents a new method of getting sh*tloads of energy from some natural thing (wind/sun/air) which won't pollute n stuff... Razz

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